fimoculous:

Guess who took the bet discussed in the last post? That guy.

Official terms of the bet with Denton: We will check Quantcast on October 1, 2011. The goal is 510M pageviews/month. It’s $10 for every million over/under. [So $600 to me if it’s 450M.] If the design reverts to the old format, he forfeits and pays out $1000. (Lockhart is the arbiter of what constitutes “design change.”) New or acquired sites do not count in the numbers. And finally, Nick’s stipulation: the money handover is to be done in public and photographed. So bring pies.

(Also: Krucoff was offered the same bet, but turned it down. Nick Rizzo and I have a different bet, but with, I think, worse terms for him.)

My guess right now is that it closes at 485M, up approximately 10% of current numbers.

“I’m going to clean him out.”

I understand why Rex thinks I have worse terms, since our timeline is shorter and Rex is counting on a drop in pageviews per person that will eventually be cancelled out by Gawker Media’s traffic growth. But I’m very pleased with my terms: I start making money 10 million pageviews per month before Denton does. I believe that pageviews per person will rise after the redesign, as readers will be forced to click through to get any of the story beyond the headline. We shall see.